Saturday’s coming fast, and with it, so are the tariffs. Or at least, that’s what we’re being told. But here’s the thing—no one seems to know what exactly is being tariffed. Will it hit oil and gas? Surprisingly, not likely. Lumber? Likely. Potash? Almost certainly.
And yet, here we are, two days out, and we’re supposed to believe there’s a plan.A plan without a plan?
A concept of a plan? If this sounds familiar, it’s because we’ve seen it before.
A political move made in broad strokes with little regard for the downstream consequences. But this time, it’s not just another softwood lumber spat or a pipeline bottleneck—it’s going to hit something even more fundamental.
Something that the U.S. absolutely needs but doesn’t talk about much.
Meet Potash, The King of Forgotten Resources
Most people couldn’t tell you what potash is, but every American farmer knows. It’s the backbone of their fertilizer supply, making sure crops—corn, soy, wheat, the big three—get the potassium they need to grow.And here’s the kicker: America doesn’t have much of it.
They import over 80% of their supply, and Canada, well, we control nearly 40% of the world's reserves. Saskatchewan alone produces over 30% of the global market.
30%!!!!
Put into perspective, Canada accounts for just 6% of Global Oil production and 5% of Global Gas Production.
And here we have Saskatchewan punching at 30% of global Potash Production.Saskatchewan.
Unlike oil and gas, which the U.S. at least has domestic reserves of, potash isn’t something they can just drill their way out of.
There are no shale fields loaded with potassium-rich minerals waiting to be tapped. No quick-fix solution.So if tariffs hit potash the U.S. agriculture sector takes a direct punch to the gut.What Happens When Potash Gets Tariffed?
- Fertilizer Prices Skyrocket – Farmers rely on steady, affordable potassium supplies to maintain yields. A tariff means higher costs, lower margins, and—guess what… higher food prices. They’ll love that.
- Corn, Wheat & Soy Take a Hit – The three crops that power the U.S. food chain and exports will cost more to grow and produce smaller yields if potash prices go up. Remember, a large part of US Fuel reservces contain ethanol from corn sources.
- America Gets a Crash Course in Supply Chains – Most people don’t realize that their Big Mac, their beer, and their morning bagel depend on Canadian potash. That realization is coming soon.
Canada Holds the Cards—So Why Do We Keep Folding?
It’s a strange thing, watching Canada play from a position of strength and yet constantly acting as though we’re on the back foot. We control the world’s most secure, politically stable potash reserves, yet we never seem to use that leverage. And now, as the U.S. flirts with tariffs, it’s time to ask: Are they prepared for what happens when Canada decides to play the game the same way?
If Potash is not included in the tariffs, would our leadership consider an export tax?Tariffing oil and gas would hurt, but they could survive.
Tariffing potash? That’s picking a fight with the hands that grow their food.
Either way, tax it.
I don’t think they’ve thought that part through. Then again, that’s what happens when you have a plan without a plan.
Time to Play Hard-Nosed Hockey
For too long, Canada has played a gentleman’s game—rolling four lines, making sure everyone gets their minutes, keeping it fair and orderly. But this isn’t house league, and we’re not here to make sure everyone feels good about their ice time.
It’s time to double-shift our top players, lay some big hits, and start playing the body instead of just chasing the puck. We need to push back, dictate the pace, and make them feel every decision they make in the corners.
Put another way: it’s time for Canada to be hard to play against.
If they’re going to take a run at us, let’s make sure they know we’ve got some heavy hitters ready to take numbers.
Maybe it’s time we levy an export tax on Potash, on Saturday… that should give them something to think about while they’re eating their last box of cheap Capt’n Crunch.
